More on Why -- and How -- Obama Will Win

Writing at Powerline, John Hinderaker explains why the election is closer than many think it ought to be (H/T:  The Other McCain):

On paper, given Obama’s record, this election should be a cakewalk for the Republicans. Why isn’t it? I am afraid the answer may be that the country is closer to the point of no return than most of us believed. With over 100 million Americans receiving federal welfare benefits, millions more going on Social Security disability, and many millions on top of that living on entitlement programs–not to mention enormous numbers of public employees–we may have gotten to the point where the government economy is more important, in the short term, than the real economy. My father, the least cynical of men, used to quote a political philosopher to the effect that democracy will work until people figure out they can vote themselves money. I fear that time may have come.

In a followup post, Hinderaker expands on this:

Because Obama’s policies have suppressed economic growth, the ranks of the unemployed and underemployed have grown steadily. As unemployment benefits have finally run out, the long-term unemployed have, by the millions, declared themselves to be permanently and totally disabled. Millions of Americans have come to be dependent on government largesse as a result of the economic folly of the Obama administration. So how are those people going to vote? One might think that, angry at the government policies that have robbed them of their ability to be self-supporting, they would vote Republican. No doubt some will. But many more will cling to the only life raft in sight, and will vote for the party that promises the never-ending continuation and expansion of government benefits.

 Hinderaker also links to Andy McCarthy, writing at National Review Online:

Here is the blunt explanation: We have lost a third of the country and, as if that weren’t bad enough, Republicans act as if it were two-thirds.

The lost third cannot be recovered overnight. For now, it is gone. You cannot cede the campus and the culture to the progressive, post-American Left for two generations and expect a different outcome. So even if Obama is the second coming of Jimmy Carter — and he has actually been much more effective, and therefore much worse — it is unreasonable to expect a Reagan-style landslide, and would be even if we had Reagan. The people coming of age in our country today have been reared very differently from those who were just beginning to take the wheel in the early 1980s. They have marinated in an unapologetically progressive system that prizes group discipline and narrative over free will and critical thought.

The narratives are not always easy to follow. In the progressive weltanschauung, good and evil are relative. Good is whatever it is said to be in the moment; don’t ask anyone to explain why “choice” is a value when it involves killing the unborn, though it is seen as an obvious nuisance when it involves the right to choose the double cheeseburger over the salad. Evil is contextualized and root-caused into vaporous abstraction.  [Emphasis added.]

 More and more writers are coming to understand that, as much as they may be believe that Romney "ought to win", and even in a landslide, Obama is doing better than they expect -- and far better than they like to admit.  And so they're beginning to predict that this election will be a squeaker.  The truth is that Obama is still doing better than they're able to admit.  The rules of elections have changed, too.  They're playing the fool's game right up to the end.

What they're not doing is coming out and admitting that the world no longer works the way it did when they acquired all their expertise as commentators.  Which would require them to admit that they no longer have much in the way of special relevant expertise as commentators.  They're also not offering any explanation of what the new rules are, and how you can succeed under those rules.

For example, as McCarthy correctly notes, "good is whatever it is said to be in the moment."  This is one of the new rules.  Good and evil are no longer eternal and immutable, they are whatever they are felt to be at the moment.  But:  felt to be by whom?  Assert yourself!  You can assert that what you want is "good" just as easily as the next fellow.  If you can't force your morality on them, you can at least demand that they not force their morality on you.  And believe me, that's exactly what they want to do.  Even under the new rules, you don't have to let them.

The New Normal Economy

Victor Davis Hanson notes that the new normal for our economy is one in which savings doesn't benefit savers, the old can't retire, and the young can't find jobs:

I’ve witnessed two of the most radical developments in my lifetime the last four years — changes far greater than those brought on by the massive new increases in the national debt, the soaring gas costs, the radical decrease in average family income, the insolvent Medicare and Social Security trajectories, or the flat housing market.

One is the fact of less than 1% interest rates on most savings (well below the rate of inflation), and the other is an epidemic of 20-something unemployment.

Sometimes, you may find that you are ignoring the obvious.  Or, you may not realize that what is happening to you and to most of your friends is actually part of a nationwide trend.  In one sense, it's comforting to know that you're not alone.  But in another, it's even more depressing to think that there's probably no solution to these problems for any of us.

The hallmark advice of retirement planning was always to scrimp, save, and put away enough money to make up for retirement’s lost salary, increasing medical bills, and the supposed good life of the “golden years.”

...But well aside from the fact that many Americans have been laid off, taken pay cuts, lost home equity, had their 401(k)s pruned, or had to take care of out-of-work relatives, there is no 5% any more on anything, not even 2% or  in most cases 1%.  Saving money means nothing really in terms of return, only the realization that inflation eats away the principal each year.

...The old American idea of receiving a fair so-so interest on a little money in the savings account vanished. And no one seems to care.

I've never been able to save money.  Perhaps I shouldn't bother trying.  Whenever I get a little set aside, something always comes up and my savings is wiped out.  Retirement?  Fugeddabouddit!

Few seem to note that those who receive nothing on their retirement savings don’t retire so easily. And when they don’t retire, jobs don’t open up — which brings us to my next observation: the lost generation of those between 21 and 30, who at various ages and periods came into the workplace the last four years. Many have 8% plus student loans. I doubt half of those will ever be paid off, given the epidemic of unemployment in this cohort.

Unemployment rates of those 16-24 are now officially over 50%. Even the cohort between 16 and 29 suffers from 45% unemployment.

What's the best way to ensure perpetual Democratic rule?  Expand the dependent class, so that Democrats can appeal to them by promising to soak the rich to support them.

The new model for the next generation is to cobble part-time work together, intern, occasionally draw on unemployment, send out resumes hourly, and hope for something to turn up (preferably in government, state or federal). 

What Hanson doesn't mention is that this generation will be motivated, like no other before it, to avoid having children.  Marriage rates can be expected to fall, divorce and abortion rates to rise.  No wonder the Democrats are all about making taxpayers and employers provide free abortions and contraceptives.

But these days, the game has changed somewhat — or rather been downscaled: the PhD is not being hired for anything other than part-time teaching; the JD is reduced to the law library gofer; the freshly minted MD is the equivalent of a salaried, high-paid nurse; the credentialed high-school teacher is subbing; the engineer is a draftsman; the carpenter is cobbling together home repair mini-jobs.

 I know people in most of these situations.  I know a Ph.D. who works at three part-time teaching positions, two JD's who can't afford to practice law, they're computer consultants, and at least one highly skilled industrial engineer who barely scrapes by "cobbling together home repair mini-jobs."

It's easy to blame Obama and the Democrats for bringing our problems to this extreme over the last four years.  It's much harder to have confidence that Romney and Republicans can be successful at reversing them over the next four.

Retirement Rules are Changing, too!

The rules on retirement are also changing (H/T: Dyspepsia Generation):

People retiring today are part of the first generation of workers who have paid more in Social Security taxes during their careers than they will receive in benefits after they retire. It's a historic shift that will only get worse for future retirees, according to an analysis by The Associated Press.

Previous generations got a much better bargain, mainly because payroll taxes were very low when Social Security was enacted in the 1930s and remained so for decades.

"For the early generations, it was an incredibly good deal," said Andrew Biggs, a former deputy Social Security commissioner who is now a scholar at the American Enterprise Institute. "The government gave you free money and getting free money is popular."

If you retired in 1960, you could expect to get back seven times more in benefits than you paid in Social Security taxes, and more if you were a low-income worker, as long you made it to age 78 for men and 81 for women.

As recently as 1985, workers at every income level could retire and expect to get more in benefits than they paid in Social Security taxes, though they didn't do quite as well as their parents and grandparents.

Not anymore.

 Read the rest here...

A Fool's Game

a manifesto

Western culture has all but fallen.  Only a few dominos are left, and little stands in the way to prevent their fall.

Our culture has been nearly been defeated not by people who exploited its weaknesses, but by those who abused its strengths:  its generosity, its liberty, its sense of order and justice, its courtesy, its idealism, but most of all its tolerance.  In balance, these things made for the richest, most free, most virtuous society in history.  We fought wars for good causes, we went to the moon in peace, we elevated the highest moral values, we treated each other with respect and goodwill -- not perfectly, never perfectly, but better than any human society had ever done in history.

The America of the future has three classes:  A ruling class, a productive class, and a dependent class.  The ruling class will tax and regulate the productive class in order to give largesse to the dependent class, who will then continue to vote to keep the ruling class in power.  One class is to be hosed for the benefit of the other two.  The election of 2012 is our last chance to forestall this from coming about, and our only hope, God help us, is Mitt Romney and the Republican Party. 

It's really not fair.  If President Obama is re-elected, and particularly if the Republicans fail to decisively take control of Congress, America will be locked into course for at least a generation that no future president will be able to substantially alter.  The relationship between the government and the governed will have been altered.  Government will no longer exist for the people, but the people for the government.  People will no longer be self-reliant, they will be reliant upon the government.  The exceptions will be despised, reviled, and eventually hunted down and eliminated.

But if Obama is not re-elected, or if the GOP takes Congress to such an extreme extent as no one is today predicting, it won't mean that we are saved from that outcome.  It will only mean the the outcome will be, temporarily, less certain.

Our choice is not between good and evil, but between mediocrity and evil.  The good work of the Tea Party remains incomplete.  It must now unseat a president if it hopes to gain time to complete its reform work.  This is a completion that is by no means certain.  In the last 70 years, only three incumbent presidents have been defeated for re-election.

The rules of the game of life in America have changed fundamentally.  Increasingly, those who have tried to play by the rules find that the game is rigged against them.  Advancement, at least by honorable means, is less easy, and much less common, than it used to be.  Advancement by dishonorable means, on the other hand, has been easier and more common.  Costs have risen faster than wages.  Government growth has outstripped population growth.  Interlocking directorships, crony capitalism, liberal redistributionism, conservative apathy, and greed at every level have combined to place the middle class everyman in the sights of a cannon that will blow him away entirely.  His slavery is nearly complete, the last of his shackles has only to be locked.

The re-election of Barack Obama will put the seal on a time of public dependence and government oppression unheard-of in the history of the North American continent.  Government will choose whether a man will be born, when he will die, how he will be educated, and what will be his work.  Government will dictate what he is to believe, how he is to be entertained, and how he will live.  It will be done in the name of "fairness" and "equality", but the result will be neither.

This prediction may seem extreme.  But things in America are far worse under Barack Obama than anyone predicted in 2008.  Did anyone in 2008 predict the outrages, the enormities, the privations we have in fact experienced?  No.  As it is, things in most sectors are worse than most people realize.  Our economy is depressed, our culture degraded, our freedom denigrated, and our military decimated.  Morality has been turned upside down.  Virtue has become a weapon used by the immoral against the virtuous.  Courts, once the guardians of justice, have become our black-robed masters, who ride roughshod over law, and precedent, and justice itself, to rule like feudal lords over legislatures and their constituents alike.  Judges in America now order legislatures to pass laws, wielding power that executives can only dream of.

Our borders are porous, and, lured by tales of streets lined in gold, uncounted millions illegally cross them, a silent invasion that depresses wages, and creates a sullen, exploited underclass beyond the protection of law, at once both perpetrators and victims of crime.

A million or more of our children die each year by abortion, and those who disapprove are sued or legislated into silence, and forced to pay for the procedure through both their taxes and their insurance premiums..  The federal government has declared open war on traditional religious morality, and with the approval of huge swaths of the populace, notably those influenced by the mainstream news and entertainment media, academia, and those seeking benefits from government cronyism.

The much pleaded-for (by liberals, gays, and other minority groups) age of tolerance has been brought to an end as these groups have gained ascendance, and turned upon authentic Christians with a level of bile and vitriol never before seen in modern America, nor, indeed (outside of communist nations) since the days of ancient Rome.  The sole societal institution oriented towards the care of children has been weakened to the point of collapse, and the wrecking ball is poised to destroy it utterly.

The rules of the game have changed, the playing field altered, the goalposts have been moved.  If you are still playing by the old rules, you are playing a fool's game.

With this blog, I will discuss these trends, and how you can address them.